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2018年世界經濟展望

By Mr. Crowd 3 Jan 201814:36





2017年,主要經濟體系的生產總值增長以及公司盈利強勁,全球經濟、地緣政治及政策並無發生重大黑天鵝事件。雖然投資者普遍預期2018年全球經濟前景將保持樂觀,但2018年資產價格是否會因政治不穩定而受到影響是主要焦點之一。投資者對德國總理默克爾(Angela Merkel)的聯合談判,英國脫歐(Brexit)和北韓緊張局勢持謹慎態度。

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在2017年提高了對全球經濟增長的預測。2018年,IMF增長預測為3.7%,比7月份的預測高0.1個百分點。

與此同時,金融市場在2017年表現甚佳。在美國,美聯儲的逐步縮減其資產負債表並沒有給整體經濟帶來任何負面影響。歐洲央行和日本央行維持寬鬆的貨幣政策。

美國
近期美國經濟表現好於預期。美國第三季度國內生產總值增長超過預期3.0%,貿易和庫存增長超過1.0%。消費者信心接近17年高點,低失業率導致美國勞動力市場緊張。市場預計明年減稅將支持消費需求和企業盈利。

投資者預計美聯儲2018年將加息三到四次,央行繼續採取漸進加息的方式。

歐洲
歐洲經濟復甦在2017年正在加強,預計將在2018年將繼續保持其趨勢。根據國際貨幣基金組織的預測,2017年實際國內生產總值增長預計為2.4%,高於2016年的1.7%,2018年則下降至2.1%。

然而,經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)預測英國經濟將在2018年迅速放緩,因為英國正在面對脫歐的陣痛期。


中國
牛津經濟研究所預測,2018年中國應該面對相對有利的外部經濟環境,全球GDP增長預計將在2018年上升到3.2%。雖然2018年全球進口增長可能放緩,但仍將高於支持出口增長。

預計中國決策者將繼續著力減少金融風險和為部分金融體系去槓桿化。中國的領導層可能會繼續致力於在2010年到2020年之間實現GDP翻一番。因此,2018年中國的GDP增長目標可能在6.5%左右,決策者可能會逐漸而不是突然放緩信貸以確保未來幾年的增長





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